July’s Reality Gap Index Hits 64: Propagandists and Hoaxsters Fooled Americans 64% of the Time
PLUS: White House Says Ballroom to be Funded by Donors, Not Taxpayers; BMW Did Not Defy EU Sanctions Against Russia; Tips for Spotting Deceptive Websites
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In today’s edition, we report the latest findings from NewsGuard’s monthly Reality Gap Index, the first regular measurement of how successful malign actors are at persuading Americans to believe false claims. (Hint: Enormously successful.) We also debunk the claim that President Trump’s plan to build a new White House ballroom will be paid for by taxpayers, and we show how Russian interests are pushing the false claim that automaker BMW has been selling luxury vehicles in Russia in violation of European sanctions.
Plus: The latest installment in our video series to provide you with the tools and skills you need to identify online hoaxes. Please share this with family and friends who may need these tips to avoid falling for false claims.
Today’s newsletter was edited by Sofia Rubinson and Eric Effron.
1. Reality Gap Index Hits 64
What happened: NewsGuard’s Reality Gap Index is the nation’s first ongoing measurement of mainstream Americans’ propensity to believe the top false claims circulating online each month. For July, NewsGuard found that nearly two thirds (64 percent) of Americans believed at least one of the month’s top three false claims.
Context: This follows our inaugural Reality Gap Index in June, which found that 49 percent of Americans believed at least one of the false claims.
A closer look: Through a monthly survey of a representative sample of Americans conducted by polling firm YouGov, the Reality Gap Index measures the percentage of Americans who believe at least one of the month’s top false claims.
The false claims are sourced from NewsGuard’s False Claims Fingerprints data stream, which tracks provably false information with significant spread online. Respondents are asked about the top three claims circulating each month, as determined by NewsGuard’s four-pronged assessment of each claim’s virality, spread, impact, and potential for harm.
July results: Nearly two thirds of Americans (64 percent) said they believed at least one of the three false claims to be true. The percentage jumps to 96.4 percent when measuring respondents who either believed or were not sure about at least one claim. Put another way, only 3.6 percent, or 1 in 28 Americans, could correctly identify all three claims as false.
Weather Service Failure in Texas? Asked about the false claim that the National Weather Service did not issue timely alerts about the July 2025 Texas floods due to cuts by the Trump administration, 37.5 percent of those surveyed said the claim was true and 28.3 percent said they were “not sure.” Only 34.1 percent correctly identified the claim as false. The false claim garnered approximately 16.4 million views on X and was posted 103,000 times.
Real Alligators at Alligator Alcatraz? Asked about the false claim that Florida’s “Alligator Alcatraz” immigrant detention center is surrounded by an alligator-infested moat, 36.5 percent said the claim was true, 30.0 percent were “not sure,” and 33.5 percent correctly said the claim was false. The false claim received around 23.1 million views on X and was spread in 19,300 posts.
Shooter of Minnesota Lawmakers a Democrat? As for the false claim that the suspect in the June 2025 shootings of Minnesota state lawmakers is a Democrat, 14.7 percent said the claim was true, 54.8 percent were “not sure,” and only 30.5 percent correctly identified the claim as false. The false claim received approximately 96.2 million views on X, making it the most widely viewed of our three claims used, and was spread in 377,000 posts.
Reality Check members can read NewsGuard’s full debunks for these claims here.
Read the full Reality Gap Index report here.
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2. Taxpayers Not Slated to Foot the Bill for Trump’s $200 Million Ballroom
What happened: Anti-Trump social media users are falsely claiming that President Donald Trump announced that his planned $200 million White House ballroom will be funded by taxpayers.
Context: At a July 31, 2025, news conference, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced Trump’s plan to have a ballroom built on the White House complex grounds for hosting events attended by world leaders and other dignitaries.
Leavitt told reporters that the project would cost approximately $200 million and would begin in September 2025.
A closer look: The announcement sparked criticism from left-leaning social media users who described the project as a frivolous expense, with many calling it a misuse of taxpayer money.
Liberal X user @JoJoFromJerz stated in a July 31 post, “Trump is spending $200 million of our tax dollars on a ‘golden ballroom’ in the White House, but we ‘can’t afford’ pediatric cancer research.” The post garnered 571,400 views and 10,000 likes in five days.
Anti-Trump Threads user @melissajay_22 said in a July 31 post, “[We] are trying to figure out how to pay for some upcoming medical bills and [Trump] wants to spend our tax money on a $200 million White House ballroom. 🖕🏽🖕🏽🖕🏽” The post received 2,400 views and 16 reposts in one day.
Actually: Leavitt told reporters at the July 31 press conference that the project would be privately funded, stating, “President Trump and other donors have generously committed to donating the funds necessary to build this approximately $200 million structure.”
A statement issued by the White House the same day said: “President Trump, and other patriot donors, have generously committed to donating the funds necessary to build this approximately $200 million dollar structure. The United States Secret Service will provide the necessary security enhancements and modifications.” The statement provided no details about donors or the amount of the President’s announced donation.
Under this plan, taxpayers would apparently be funding the costs of any extra security measures, but not the $200 million price tag for the ballroom.
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3. Pro-Kremlin Accounts Claim BMW Sold Thousands of Luxury SUVs in Russia Despite EU Sanctions
By Hope Talbot
What happened: Pro-Russian social media accounts are citing decade-old data to claim that German car manufacturer BMW sold thousands of luxury X7 SUVs to Russia in 2024, in violation of European Union sanctions forbidding luxury car sales to Russia after it invaded Ukraine.
Context: In 2022, the EU imposed extensive economic and other sanctions on Moscow, including a ban on the export of luxury, hybrid, and electric vehicles to Russia.
A closer look: In July 2025, pro-Russian social media users shared a graphic that claimed that BMW sold 3,504 X7 SUVs to Russia in 2024, more than it had sold in Germany. The graphic was purportedly based on sales figures by Autostat, a Russian analytical agency focused on the auto industry, and Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA), Germany’s automotive authority.
Pro-Russian X user @OlgaBazova posted the graphic on July 19 with a comment apparently aimed at belittling EU sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Take that, Putin,” the post stated, gaining 134,000 views and 4,200 likes in five days.
The claim was also shared by RT reporter Chay Bowes and by Tsargrad, a pro-Russian media outlet owned by Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev.
Actually: NewsGuard found no credible news reports indicating that BMW sold thousands of X7 SUVs in Russia in 2024.
Indeed, the data Autostat reported indicating that BMW sold 3,504 cars in Russia comes from 2014, not 2024.
Germany’s KBA reported that 3,256 X7 SUVs were sold in Germany in 2024. It provided no figures for sales in Russia.
In December 2024, Business Insider Deutschland reported that more than 100 luxury cars were smuggled into Russia from a BMW branch in Hanover, Germany, despite sanctions. These reports did not say whether any of the cars were X7s. BMW called these sales “irregularities” and told Business Insider that it fired the employees involved in the incident.
BMW did not respond to an email from NewsGuard inquiring about the matter.
4. Tips and Tricks: How to Spot a Deceptive Fake News Website
This video is part of a series offering readers practical tips on how to spot false claims spreading online. Each short tutorial breaks down real-life examples of deepfakes and other fabrications and tells you about the tools you can use to spot falsehoods in your social media feeds. We hope you will share these videos with family and friends who need these tips to avoid falling for false claims.
Today’s tutorial explains how to spot a deceptive news website designed to spread pro-Russia false claims. So next time you see an outrageous headline on a website that doesn’t seem legitimate, you’ll have some tools to determine whether the site can be trusted. Watch below:
Reality Check is produced by Co-CEOs Steven Brill and Gordon Crovitz, and the NewsGuard team.
We launched Reality Check after seeing how much interest there is in our work beyond the business and tech communities that we serve. Subscribe to this newsletter to support our apolitical mission to counter false claims for readers, brands, and democracies. Our work is more important than ever. Have feedback? Send us an email: realitycheck@newsguardtech.com.